This project aims to develop statistical models for producing spatial predictions of the robustness of bee plant interactions and ultimately predict how pollen limitation varies along gradients of land use intensification and habitat isolation.

One of the greatest challenges of our time is to safeguard biodiversity and associated ecosystem functions. Fundamental ecosystem functions such as pollination are the product of mutualistic interactions between organisms. Our understanding of how these species interactions are influenced by environmental change is hampered by the lack of models for simultaneously predicting effects on the distribution of species, interspecific interactions, and associated ecosystem functions. Given the rate of environmental change, there is an urgent need for modelling frameworks that can quantify the influence of community assembly processes on the structure of interaction networks.

The aim of MetaComNet is to develop a modelling framework that predicts the structure of interaction networks and the sustenance of associated ecosystem functions, based on community assembly processes (dispersal, trait-based ecological filtering and neutral processes). To achieve this goal, we will use a combination of simulated data, data from digital repositories, and data from our own ecological surveys. We will use ecological networks consisting of floral visitations by wild bees as a model system because bee-plant interactions can lead to pollination. We will conduct pollen limitation experiments to test if the predicted structure of bee-plant networks corresponds to the actual pollen limitation within plant communities. Considering the complexity of interaction networks and theirs linkages to ecosystem functioning, MetaComNet has a bold objective. The potential for achieving our goal is maximized through the careful selection of the experts constituting the research group, combined with a thoroughly thought through methodological approach. MetaComNet is therefore likely to make a substantial contribution to our understanding of how processes acting at different spatial scales influence species distributions, and interactions, and ultimately affect ecosystem functioning.

The project is led by the Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NINA), collaborating with researchers at Aarhus University in Denmark (including Senior Researcher Yoko L. Dupont), Oslo University (UiO), and The Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO).